The global air cargo market performed well

According to the data of the International Air Transport Association (IATA, hereinafter referred to as "IATA"), the global air cargo demand grew strongly by 9.0% in 2017, twice the growth rate of global cargo trade (the growth rate of Global trade reached 4.3% in 2017). Among them, China's air cargo market is booming. According to the data of CAAS freight financial settlement system (CASS), China's import and export orders increased by 20% year-on-year in 2017.

 

The Chinese market is booming

 

Benefiting from the sustained development of China's economy and the recovery of Global trade, China's air cargo market has an eye-catching performance. Brian Pierce, an economist of the International Air Transport Association * *, said that China's positive impact on the development of global air cargo is mainly reflected in three aspects: while China continues to develop its economy (especially the continuous growth of household income and consumer expenditure), it continues to import materials and products from other countries; As an important global goods manufacturer, China's bulk commodities are transported to other countries by air export; The increasing prosperity of China's domestic air transport network means that the freight market in mainland China will continue to maintain high-speed growth for some time in the future. This is confirmed by the freight performance of the three major domestic airlines. Taking Air China as an example, in 2017, Air China invested 13.319 billion usable freight ton kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%; The total freight turnover was 7.553 billion ton kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 7.97%; The freight and mail carrying rate was 56.70%, a year-on-year increase of 1.78 percentage points. Air China's revenue from cargo and mail transportation in 2017 was 10.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.95 billion yuan. Among them, the revenue increased by 380 million yuan due to the increase of transportation capacity investment, 282 million yuan due to the increase of carrying rate, and 1.288 billion yuan due to the increase of income level.

 

Brian pierce also said that affected by favorable factors such as the good global and domestic economic environment in China, the recovery of Global trade, the global goods preparation cycle and the strong shipment of export orders, the air cargo market performed strongly in 2017, and the freight demand in the Asia Pacific region increased by 7.8% year-on-year. On the one hand, China and Japan, the major exporters in the Asia Pacific region, are driven by the economic recovery in Europe and the sustained and steady development of the US economy, and their export demand continues to grow. In addition, China's investment in Africa has promoted the development of Asian and African economy and trade. The export orders of major Asia Pacific exporters including China have surged. It is expected that air cargo will continue to grow strongly in the first half of 2018. Globally, the data in January this year showed that the global air cargo demand (calculated according to freight ton kilometers) increased by 8.0% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate in December 2017 (5.8%). In January 2018, the freight capacity (calculated according to the available freight ton kilometers) increased by 4.2% year-on-year.

 

It is expected to maintain continuous growth

 

Freight demand continued to maintain positive growth and continued to 2018, indicating that the driving factors driving the growth of air freight demand continued to play a role. For example, the global manufacturing industry has strong export demand. In order to meet the export demand, the delivery time of the supply chain will be extended accordingly. Enterprises strive to shorten the delivery time to make up for the extension of production time, so the demand for air freight will also increase accordingly. More importantly, the demand for aviation is expected to continue to grow.

 

According to the prediction of the International Monetary Fund, the real annual growth rate of global GDP will reach 3.1% and the growth rate of Global trade will reach 3.9% in the next five years. With the continuous improvement of the economic situation and the recovery of the global trade market, air cargo will grow at an annual growth rate of 4.9% in the next five years. Although resistance and risks still exist, the freight market is expected to maintain the growth trend since 2014 and continue to develop at a speed better than global trade.